The European Union (EU) has issued a stark warning to Nigeria, cautioning that the country risks repeating the significant flaws observed during the 2023 general elections in the upcoming 2027 polls unless urgent and comprehensive electoral reforms are implemented without delay. This alert was delivered by Mr. Barry Andrews, a Member of the European Parliament and former Chief Observer of the EU Election Observation Mission, during a press conference held in Abuja on Friday. Andrews emphasized that Nigeria’s progress toward meaningful electoral reform has been, at best, modest and teeters dangerously close to stagnation, threatening the nation’s democratic integrity.
Andrews underscored the critical need for reforms that inspire public confidence, stating, “The country’s democratic resilience depends on reforms that citizens can believe in.” He acknowledged some positive developments, such as the legislative momentum behind the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2025 and the ongoing constitutional review process. However, he cautioned that time is of the essence. “Unless these reforms are concluded within the next few months, there is a significant risk of repeating the serious shortcomings of 2023,” Andrews warned. He urged all political actors in Nigeria to capitalize on the current momentum to deliver reforms that ensure transparency, inclusiveness, and credibility in the 2027 elections.
The EU’s concerns stem from the findings of its Follow-Up Mission, which assessed Nigeria’s progress on 23 priority reforms recommended after the troubled 2023 elections. The mission’s report painted a sobering picture: only one of the recommended reforms has been fully implemented, two have been partially adopted, eight are in progress, nine remain untouched, and three are too early to evaluate. This slow pace of reform, according to Andrews, risks plunging Nigeria into another cycle of electoral disputes, mistrust, and chaos. “Time is running out. The window is closing,” he declared, emphasizing that without genuine political will, Nigerians could face a repeat of the challenges that marred the 2023 elections.
The EU outlined six critical reforms that Nigeria must prioritize and complete ahead of the 2027 elections to safeguard the democratic process. The first reform focuses on ensuring transparent appointments to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Andrews stressed that INEC’s leadership must be selected through a process that is open, merit-based, and free from political interference to restore public trust in the electoral body. The second reform calls for greater transparency in the collation and transmission of election results, addressing the technical and logistical failures that undermined the 2023 elections. Issues such as delays in result transmission and allegations of manipulation were significant pain points that eroded public confidence.
The third reform emphasizes the need for improved representation of women in the electoral process. Despite Nigeria’s commitments to gender equality, women remain significantly underrepresented in political offices and electoral processes. The EU urged Nigeria to implement measures that promote women’s participation, both as candidates and in decision-making roles within electoral institutions. The fourth reform advocates for the establishment of an Independent Electoral Offences Commission to tackle pervasive issues such as vote-buying, electoral violence, and voter intimidation. Andrews noted that electoral impunity remains deeply entrenched, with prosecutions for electoral offenses so rare that they fail to deter criminal behavior. “Vote buying, violence, and intimidation remain unchecked,” he said, underscoring the need for a dedicated body to investigate and prosecute electoral crimes.
The fifth reform centers on the passage of the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2025, alongside broader constitutional reforms, to provide INEC with a stable and robust legal framework well in advance of the 2027 elections. Andrews stressed that “INEC cannot operate on shifting ground,” highlighting the importance of a clear and predictable legal environment to ensure effective election management. Timing, he noted, is critical, as reforms must be finalized early enough to allow INEC to prepare adequately. The sixth and final reform calls for stronger protections for media freedom, which Andrews described as a “non-negotiable” pillar of any functioning democracy. He emphasized that journalists must be protected from harassment, intimidation, and violence to enable them to report freely and hold the electoral process accountable. “A free press is non-negotiable in any democracy. Journalists must be shielded, not silenced,” Andrews asserted.
The EU’s warning comes against the backdrop of Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, which were widely criticized for logistical failures, allegations of fraud, and widespread voter disenfranchisement. The elections, which saw the victory of President Bola Tinubu, were marred by controversies over the functionality of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the electronic transmission of results. These issues, coupled with reports of vote-buying, violence, and voter suppression, led to a significant erosion of public trust in Nigeria’s electoral process. The EU’s 2023 Election Observation Mission documented these shortcomings and provided a roadmap of 23 recommendations to address them, but the slow pace of implementation has raised concerns about Nigeria’s readiness for the 2027 polls.
EU Ambassador to Nigeria and ECOWAS, Mr. Gautier Mignot, reaffirmed the Union’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s democratic journey through its governance support program. However, he placed the onus squarely on Nigerian leaders to take ownership of the reform process. “We are fully backing Nigeria through our democratic governance support programme,” Mignot said. “But these are recommendations that Nigeria must own. The credibility of your democracy depends on it.” His remarks underscored the EU’s position that while external support is available, the responsibility for enacting meaningful change lies with Nigeria’s political leadership and institutions.
The EU Follow-Up Mission, which arrived in Nigeria to assess the state of electoral reforms, is expected to remain in the country for one week before submitting a comprehensive report. This report will include updated recommendations based on the mission’s findings and engagements with Nigerian stakeholders, including government officials, electoral authorities, civil society organizations, and political actors. The mission’s work is part of the EU’s broader commitment to promoting democratic governance and electoral integrity worldwide, with Nigeria being a key focus due to its strategic importance as Africa’s most populous nation and a leading democracy on the continent.
The urgency of the EU’s warning cannot be overstated. Nigeria’s democracy, while resilient, faces significant challenges that threaten its stability. The 2023 elections exposed deep-seated issues in the electoral process, from institutional weaknesses to systemic corruption, and the lack of progress on reforms risks perpetuating these problems. For many Nigerians, the stakes are high: credible elections are essential not only for democratic governance but also for fostering national unity and addressing the country’s pressing socio-economic challenges.
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, the EU’s call for urgent action serves as a reminder of the need for collective effort to strengthen the country’s democratic institutions. Political leaders, electoral authorities, civil society, and citizens all have a role to play in ensuring that the mistakes of 2023 are not repeated. The establishment of an Independent Electoral Offences Commission, for example, could address the pervasive issue of vote-buying, which undermines the integrity of the electoral process. Similarly, protecting journalists and ensuring a free press will enhance transparency and accountability, allowing Nigerians to make informed choices at the polls.
The EU’s engagement with Nigeria reflects its broader commitment to supporting democratic governance in Africa, where electoral challenges are not unique to Nigeria. However, Nigeria’s size, influence, and democratic aspirations make it a critical case study. The success or failure of its electoral reforms will have implications not only for Nigerians but also for the region as a whole. As Andrews noted, the window for action is rapidly closing, and the time for decisive leadership is now.
In conclusion, the EU’s warning highlights the critical need for Nigeria to act swiftly to implement electoral reforms ahead of the 2027 elections. With only one of the 23 recommended reforms fully implemented, the country faces a daunting task to restore public trust and ensure a credible electoral process. The six priority reforms outlined by the EU—transparent INEC appointments, result transmission transparency, improved women’s representation, an electoral offences commission, a stable legal framework, and media freedom—provide a clear roadmap for progress. However, achieving these reforms will require political will, collaboration, and a commitment to prioritizing the interests of Nigerian citizens. As the EU Follow-Up Mission prepares its report, Nigeria stands at a crossroads, with an opportunity to strengthen its democracy and avoid the pitfalls of the past. The question remains whether its leaders will rise to the challenge.