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New York, October 22, 2025 – U.S. President Donald Trump cast fresh doubt Tuesday on former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's bid for the city's mayoralty, suggesting that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani appears poised to claim victory in the November 4 election. Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump remarked that recent polling painted a grim picture for Cuomo, the independent candidate trailing in a three-way contest with Republican Curtis Sliwa. "It's not looking too good" for Cuomo, Trump said, adding that even if Sliwa were to withdraw – a scenario under intense discussion among GOP strategists – Mamdani's edge might prove insurmountable.
"I don't know, if he dropped out, maybe Cuomo would have a little bit of a chance, but not much, because it looks like the lead is, it's not a great lead, but it's big enough that he should be able to win," Trump elaborated, referring to Mamdani's consistent double-digit advantage in surveys. The president's comments mark a subtle pivot from his earlier, more enthusiastic backing of Cuomo in July, when he described the former governor as having a "good shot" against what Trump labeled a "communist" challenger in Mamdani. At the time, Trump had publicly urged Cuomo to stay in the race and even reportedly discussed strategies with him during a private phone call, as revealed by The New York Times in August. Now, with early voting underway as of Saturday, Trump's skepticism underscores the fluid dynamics of a race that has captivated national attention, blending local affordability woes with broader ideological clashes over socialism, experience, and federal-city relations.
The latest AARP/Gotham Polling & Analytics survey, released earlier this week, reinforces Trump's assessment, showing Mamdani at 43% support among likely voters in the three-candidate field, compared to Cuomo's 29% and Sliwa's 19%. That 14-point cushion for the 33-year-old state assemblyman from Queens narrows to a statistical tie – 45% to 41% – if Sliwa exits, falling within the poll's ±4% margin of error. Undecided voters and those backing lingering write-ins, including scandal-plagued incumbent Eric Adams (whose name remains on the ballot despite his September 28 withdrawal), account for the remainder. A broader compilation by The New York Times of six head-to-head polls between Mamdani and Cuomo shows the Democrat prevailing in four, with Cuomo edging out only in two July surveys predating the primary. More recent data from Quinnipiac (October 3-7) and Fox News (October 10-16) similarly peg Mamdani's lead at 13 points (46%-33%) and 24 points (52%-28%), respectively, in multi-candidate scenarios.
Mamdani's surge is no fluke. The democratic socialist, born in Kampala, Uganda, and a graduate of the Bronx High School of Science, has channeled widespread frustration over New York City's skyrocketing costs into a platform emphasizing affordability and equity. His June Democratic primary upset – a seven-point victory over Cuomo with 52% in the final ranked-choice round – mobilized a diverse coalition of young voters, progressives, and working-class families. Endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and state Attorney General Letitia James, Mamdani promises to raise the minimum wage to $30 by 2030, expand free child care, and build 200,000 affordable housing units through public investment. He's also advocated for fare-free buses, drawing from his successful pilot program in the Assembly, and a "Green New Deal" for the city, including all-electric buildings to combat climate change. Critics, including Trump, have seized on his past "defund the police" rhetoric and support for Palestinian rights – including vows to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on an ICC warrant if he visits – to paint him as a radical. Yet Mamdani counters that his record shows empathy and honesty, with favorable ratings at 43% in Quinnipiac's latest poll.
A Mamdani win would shatter barriers: He'd be New York City's first Muslim and first South Asian mayor, representing a city of 8.3 million where over a million residents are Muslim and affordability has driven outmigration. His campaign, fueled by small-dollar donors and volunteers, has outraised Cuomo's billionaire-backed effort, amassing $12 million to Cuomo's $9 million as of mid-October filings. "New Yorkers aren't buying the fearmongering," Mamdani told reporters on The View last week, dismissing Trump's threats to withhold federal funds as "extortion."
Cuomo, 67, entered the race in March as a comeback vehicle after resigning as governor in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations. Running on the "Fight and Deliver" independent line, he touts his crisis-management bona fides – from post-recession recovery to COVID-19 response – and pitches a centrist agenda: universal pre-K for 3-year-olds, expanded half-fare MetroCards, and handing subway maintenance to the city from the MTA. But his unfavorable ratings hover at 52%, per Quinnipiac, haunted by scandals and a perceived coziness with Trump allies. Cuomo has courted Republicans, appearing on Fox News to call Sliwa "irrelevant" and urging his exit to consolidate anti-Mamdani votes. On Monday, he floated accepting an endorsement from Adams but demurred on Trump's, insisting he'd "fight" the president if elected.
Enter Sliwa, the 71-year-old Guardian Angels founder and radio host, whose red-beret-clad patrols defined 1980s vigilantism. The Republican nominee, unopposed in his primary, polls in the high teens but faces mounting pressure to bow out – from Trump, billionaire John Catsimatidis (his radio boss), and even the New York Post. Sliwa, a self-described "anti-Trump Republican," refuses, vowing to "never drop out" and prioritizing animal welfare, homelessness solutions, and anti-corruption reforms. His persistence could siphon votes from Cuomo, inadvertently aiding Mamdani, as GOP leaders fret over a socialist triumph in the Democratic stronghold.
The race's national stakes are amplified by Trump's shadow. Since Adams' exit – reportedly influenced by White House offers of an ambassadorship – Mamdani has accused the president of engineering a "backroom deal" to install Cuomo, whom he calls Trump's "choice." Trump, who once feuded with Cuomo, now views the ex-governor as a bulwark against "radical left" policies, per aides. On X, reactions range from Sliwa supporters urging a Trump rally to boost the Republican ("NY’ers DO NOT want Mamdani or Cuomo," one user posted) to progressives celebrating Mamdani's resilience against "the socialist Democrat machine."
With turnout historically low in off-year locals (around 20-25%), the contest hinges on mobilization. Mamdani's ground game – 50,000 volunteers door-knocking – contrasts Cuomo's TV-heavy blitz and Sliwa's street-level Guardian Angels redux. Debates have been fiery: On October 16 at Rockefeller Center, candidates sparred over housing (Mamdani's public option vs. Cuomo's incentives), noise pollution, and Gaza, with Sliwa accusing both rivals of "marginalizing" him. A second debate airs Wednesday.
As ballots drop, the Empire City's future – from rent-stabilized units to federal aid amid Trump's threats – hangs in balance. Mamdani's vision of inclusive equity clashes with Cuomo's pragmatic governance and Sliwa's tough-on-crime populism. Trump's interjection only heightens the drama, reminding voters that Gracie Mansion's next occupant could redefine blue-city resistance in a red-tinged era. With 13 days until polls close, one thing's clear: This isn't just about potholes anymore.